The Politics of Peace: Iran, Elections, and the Stakes Ahead

JUNE 19, 2026

WHAT THE IRAN MOU ACTUALLY MEANS
By now you probably will have seen a great deal of commentary on the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran. The deal provides that over the next 60 days, the US and Iran will negotiate on a variety of subjects. The biggest of which are opening the Strait of Hormuz, ending the Iranian nuclear program, and lifting of sanctions. There are a few high level comments I have that hopefully will provide an important backdrop for the broader commentary on the MOU.

It's important to note that an MOU is not a final deal, but sets the table for negotiations. The conditions for a final deal require significant steps be made by Iran to move forward. I have not heard from a single US official that they suddenly trust the Iranians. On the contrary, it seems everything is set up in a way to anticipate sneakiness on the part of Iran. Even now, the negotiations which were supposed to begin in Switzerland have been postponed because of ongoing fighting between Hezbollah and Israel. Iran obviously wants to keep backing its proxy, Hezbollah, and thinks it can drive a wedge between Israel and the US.

THE 137-DAY POLITICAL CLOCK
It cannot be overstated that the primary backdrop to the MOU is the upcoming midterm elections. The high gas prices and ongoing conflict are primary attack points against the Republicans. Every Democratic ad I have seen on TV has used the high gas prices and war to this end. If gas prices are low and the war is over, the Republicans have a good chance of holding the House and keeping the Senate. If gas prices are high, the Republicans will certainly lose the House. The Democrats have been pretty clear about their intentions if they take the House, which is to impeach Trump and drag all of his allies before committee hearings. Just about every agenda item Trump has planned for the next two years will grind to a halt.

The challenge for the MOU is that the Iranians and Democrats know this too. There are 137 days until the midterms and the MOU creates a ceasefire for 60 days. It would not at all surprise me if the Iranians create some excuse to shut down the Strait of Hormuz in September which cause gas prices to spike in October. The Trump administration must anticipate this move and plan accordingly.

ISRAEL'S ELECTION SEASON AND THE LIMITS OF DIPLOMACY
It's not just elections in the US at stake but Israel too. While the date is not yet set, elections will be sometime between the middle of September and late October. For the war in Lebanon and relationship with the US will be a primary topic of debate. Additionally, the participation of the ultra-orthodox in the IDF is a major point to contention. The coalition currently in power includes the ultra-orthodox parties and yet they are highly unpopular because of their refusal to fully participate in the IDF. The point of divergence with the Trump administration, however, is that all the candidates in Israel need to be seen as tough in response to Hezbollah, but Trump needs gas prices to go down. Trump needs to back down a bit on Iran while Bibi can't back down at all. The adage that all politics is local, looms large in the current moment.

I always keep in mind that Trump has been in the real estate development industry for most of his adult life. That industry is not know for playing nice and being altruistic. It is cutthroat. Add Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to the negotiations and all three are in the real-estate development industry. This dynamic matters because in the development industry negotiations need to ultimately succeed. Deals need to be made. There are often fixed timelines with lots of moving parts. Nobody trusts each other in these negotiations. Now add to the mix the ability to wield the most powerful military the world has ever known to achieve the desired outcome and you have a good reason to trust the process. We are told to pray for our political leaders. Let's pray that they have divine wisdom to discern the path through a very complicated moment in history.

COUNTERFEIT COURAGE AND THE HITLER-CURIOUS CHRISTIANS
One other quick item, last weekend the New Christendom Press Conference was held in Ogden, Utah at Refuge Church. Among the participating publishing companies was Antelope Hill Publishing which publishes and promotes Nazi material. I'm not speaking hyperbolically, but literally. One of the main guys behind this company described his participation and was in no way put out or treated poorly. Brian Suave and Eric Conn, primary organizers of the conference attempted to distance themselves from the Nazi promoting elements by claiming Antelope Hill was there because of their anti-Zionist material which Suave and Conn support. However, it wasn't just the Nazi lovers that promoted their wares at the conference - UK citizen Calvin Robinson, who ran away from the UK because of Islamists, promoted his new book on Jihad along with a reprinting of Martin Luther's The Jews and Their Lies.

These self-identified Christians often decked out in nice suits and long beards are cowards. They claim to be leading the fight against the Progressives and Jihadis, but do so from a part of the country that has neither. If they were courageous they would go start a church in Dearborn or St Paul. Instead they hide away in Ogden. These losers are grown up keyboard warriors one small step removed from their moms' basement. Instead of mommy bringing them hot-pockets, their lower IQ wives (their words not mine) bring them made-from-scratch hot-pockets. Please don't confuse these guys with anyone who actually represents Jesus Christ.

INVESTING IN THE NEXT GENERATION OF LEADERS
Finally, if you know college students who are interested in learning how to run for leadership positions on in Conservative campus organizations, send them to me. Have them come to an all-expense paid week of training and opportunities in Washington DC July 31-August 4.